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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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只跟踪一个联赛
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! U* \( g. C! H3 p) J6 H全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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  o9 T+ z; R" N  a; L" S9 e* V) X三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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7 A/ k3 T2 {8 d0 _: f3 b( n( V! P7 N偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。# v  E3 r. ^: b0 M" W$ I, V0 Z6 S- U
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）$ O& `" H5 t4 }
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，6 U+ M9 @) w6 K  R
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱8 h( _- K. ]% W  A( ]3 q

% z, `3 G+ m2 q5 Y当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目' P- I8 K+ ]  F7 l& \, R

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8 }3 O+ r) g. q( ?7 h亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，! W' V: m9 l: E  m
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，; |% ^1 v; O2 G" z9 x7 v4 v8 r

7 d$ E# L2 b( @但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。/ z$ F  w5 y+ v

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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。2 d6 n/ }9 x% l% y4 j+ m# F9 _7 p
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，9 g4 p. t" ~) u* d
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，3 s, e% N3 b3 F6 L% y
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这比买国债存银行合算。
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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3 u2 f- m, b! X- C7 u几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。) X+ Y8 n0 j& {5 ?' `! q

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& D) T5 G4 J) F( t( |: i2 V- V常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。- w, V* C4 [4 X( ]

) q1 \$ G2 I: ?' C# l放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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0 v5 X" N' M  Y就是回避了大的亏损，
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，3 P( a  @1 S. J$ K
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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