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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
5 {, P* ^/ f+ q" F# O5 s" K8 m
其实原文标题不是这样的" p. J+ C5 k' ~! F7 ?/ O: t
& o: r5 ^. i0 y- J
这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!$ M5 Z7 ?& _+ d) K) }# k. f
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
# U, ?: \2 N% d1 J2 Q他希望能和上帝来场赌局。; |. q# l+ j, l; M3 Y5 C; f" M4 U
5 a7 i0 {# b4 j2 w a/ x 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。# P4 F8 D7 o5 H8 m7 J
, w7 u* b# `$ M6 d# P 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」& T6 M# ?& s. R6 w2 }! P$ i
5 [5 E0 Y3 Y. m/ A/ |1 u) r「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」
' G4 F+ D$ p, a「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
$ b) N% Y" P7 y% E
6 O0 s P8 E4 x+ ~. M* _" e; Q2 Y 上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
7 B% ?; p* B3 ^ ( i3 [: ~0 L+ d0 P1 X3 N
接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，( d7 T7 h0 U7 Q2 J+ u2 i' q; Q
因此铜板较容易出现正面。7 u; I8 v$ a2 e; u5 e. K
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 $ r9 t* s) v( f% `' h
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
. D. T8 R- w0 e$ u$ c. e* N心想赢定了。, _- }: I6 R6 t9 c% u
5 k* v" U# H7 W& O3 y/ J
没想到开始不到半刻钟，( l6 Q4 p8 H" j* }: h$ u
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」" ^% {. P4 ~6 V5 J3 |
# R! B8 i" s: m; w赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，7 q, W! o3 v9 J: j2 F" l* v
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。* d; }. Z% \- ?1 E
* v- `, O3 I! B0 v4 [6 B" ^% t赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?( ]# I0 P3 M# r1 h- F& K1 ?
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 % `* B4 Y4 Q) Z3 ]8 O' A
上帝回答道：
0 [ E6 H+ G j: B% r }( ?0 M1 G「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
4 ?$ d$ D# x0 W' |5 \0 U; R「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
. h) O. a* ?4 J4 D. m' }: i& `「而不是先发生在我身上。」
7 H5 w; }) d) k' y7 k$ m# n' K) R& E$ _0 \; j0 f; b
赌徒恍然大悟，
; n) n6 a a T# j" A. K8 Z& T7 C原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
8 T9 \ S0 e" L! y+ P8 P9 R# C竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
) Q, m. @7 C C9 d5 V「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」
/ |& \ z! W: I. V* I上帝说完便不见踪影。 ; F: P7 A! O7 Y+ x& c& ~
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，' V$ E' P+ U% U8 g2 |0 w9 f( p
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，0 v9 M* C% p4 f, H! W+ b
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
1 i2 o p' {1 }5 |% V9 U对赌徒十分有利。4 m2 I/ J0 L% r& }6 n
+ U! s4 g4 G5 |2 V
但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
( f8 [7 i7 _' \+ I在还没掷到1000次之前，
9 q; L# V$ `- E1 T- ^3 M6 I仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
" T0 ]9 i4 M. @0 P' V& M: |
: ^% y& |% | R) {' U. _ 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
$ c2 \3 T: d( a0 o' j3 [. o- f# d- B1 R. w+ [
事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
# F& F; A3 g+ \9 K6 ]; P
9 H8 ~: Z* ]: F, H8 u 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，' I& l! }6 [3 W, U
0 t0 h; J* E: S& I
永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ , B6 ]* `1 i! p2 C0 v
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