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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
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/ Z% R( ~! p9 Z t" k0 V; ?2 G其实原文标题不是这样的9 h2 B# k" [0 ~9 m# }
2 P6 `8 o( Q- b这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!/ D) C( x1 N8 N7 Z8 V& A
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+ @9 H6 n! r4 m1 z
有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
5 J/ c: `' U. M他希望能和上帝来场赌局。, Q- e) n: J& \" u! j. W9 p
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「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。) e. {+ z' h. i4 E# d
+ ~: N: k3 f" j9 w5 f' ~
「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」8 X* Y9 S! M: v' [. a9 D/ i7 z% V) h
& T( g& |3 d+ @- K
「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 3 c) J. Y6 b- R! X( H
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
# `7 k$ V/ n; r% H- B0 U" T: o! |: \: L- C* e
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
4 x5 g/ N* i: Q; z3 b. E+ j
M! y' N& o2 y! j& V2 n$ j) L接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，; v/ s; c& a6 i- f# [- k% a4 F# a
因此铜板较容易出现正面。1 h7 F. d x3 a4 P/ B4 ]% X( E
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
g/ c, u! q {! r7 x因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。$ ?( }3 C, u: W- l" @
心想赢定了。
$ y2 ^* g {! U 5 k6 [6 {& C: l ^9 z1 x
没想到开始不到半刻钟，) W7 s0 w5 f0 z7 k7 j8 c: _4 F
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」
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1 s1 U1 m E. J+ g4 R赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试， V& H" _$ T; |# ]! [; M. ?6 T6 e
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。9 x. d* `- w* P
2 e+ Y2 d/ j& M5 W5 i c% l赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
# i2 y8 K) Q9 h7 w5 o他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
- L) J! u; g1 P8 T9 C
上帝回答道：2 p) E# p+ P& X- q; B/ Y7 I
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」4 M9 a6 w2 h$ P }, S' o; y
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
# Y. P( o. t* O; D「而不是先发生在我身上。」
2 D. J% N* s4 [ B. H5 }# ]8 C0 L0 n
赌徒恍然大悟，4 N; Q! S- F8 d& y0 m7 q- l
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，' N; [( Q& L6 z/ p% @
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
; @8 u' W3 @. ~( w6 {「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」& l& k) x; U0 \3 @; v! Q P; Z, N! k
上帝说完便不见踪影。
& k% M, x- p/ e" B
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，7 n j& I1 R" h& C' i) Y4 H# ]5 o$ a$ w& t
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，& U9 c' r% D7 \6 d/ V
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，+ u p) {$ R! v! S% B- D
对赌徒十分有利。
' L L3 R3 k! I/ C% ` $ r) e4 q6 f; M8 y: h% T; x
但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
2 ^- a: p+ Q2 c! ^在还没掷到1000次之前，. f) ?- O. @7 U; U; L9 y+ ?) r5 P+ f8 J
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
1 J9 I% ?$ \4 ~ S- \ p* c- h7 a) d' E2 f8 ?5 P5 \
赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。: X c$ B- ]* O6 q
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事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
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5 B5 }: n0 v% t, A. f/ i 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
# x% n# {! K8 b
5 A. f' a: y! q5 Q0 f$ |8 A, M 永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ 9 Z: x/ p! y6 |% z8 A h+ k
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