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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 " C) f7 u {* G- ]+ n; M' c& P
/ i+ l$ ~: P H0 E其实原文标题不是这样的
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, K$ ~1 f/ |9 i4 S! N& E这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
5 [2 @8 S/ T1 f5 Y+ A5 k他希望能和上帝来场赌局。! S3 R9 w* {& C" f# J: c: Y8 s1 E7 f
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「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。$ E+ g- P( \9 y$ V7 p
! y- S3 _ P3 M6 `* Z4 k. f; r 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」4 V8 [& @2 ~; u( f0 v8 q# C* c
) w- }& v6 [- v1 }
「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」
1 U6 b1 W @# h4 N2 {! A8 u「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
9 d3 D/ [2 O4 ]% ]; N$ x6 o9 {& q
* h0 C. d# } E 上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。, I: Y: t$ n: O+ n- B- m. x# g
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接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，1 R% c/ X5 [* ]
因此铜板较容易出现正面。
( f3 F( a( w$ `5 ?/ @长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 4 E" g4 i4 b1 Y
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
2 j* S: G) e' A0 q, \心想赢定了。
5 x( u- |8 T. L- L9 r5 d$ G . J) Y1 X$ v, ~/ w: ]2 X3 D
没想到开始不到半刻钟，
# x7 P) L' C% z$ T: N. |赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」
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9 Y/ T/ D; b' G J: t赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
* x3 f( o A( K {1 Y3 ~但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
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0 o* j' Y, R# N7 G6 ^( i赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
# m& C* K$ V7 H7 C A( ^他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
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上帝回答道：
9 O3 M0 E8 X: E. @0 u「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
2 p) M+ c4 @: P" x% x; k1 |5 v, S+ H「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
, H5 h" R |/ P4 T3 C5 L" e) R( o「而不是先发生在我身上。」1 ^. j( v; J9 p& m; O; B
* ]2 S, e9 Y; V9 u3 F, r6 r 赌徒恍然大悟，
; B0 v) u+ J0 H1 p原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，. L2 c0 ]$ w2 o& F7 M
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！3 g% L4 R6 J" \4 ?, [6 t6 k
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」9 b8 s; }( i0 i2 p, v* ?
上帝说完便不见踪影。 5 A1 y4 F" `2 e5 Y# }- b
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，/ Y: W, s/ m# `6 d, Q/ E' x
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，
" d) c* Z2 t/ }0 t$ W* a1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，& N+ a+ ` w4 h0 _4 D1 `
对赌徒十分有利。
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但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，( C' w0 n% M& e+ _1 f
在还没掷到1000次之前，( ^) V* ~& S5 D9 ]# `5 h
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
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赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。# e; p, R( @1 Q7 p7 \
& t8 L/ L2 |% M* | 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。. G( P% R" g& I0 l6 D0 J
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市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，/ o* k4 Q2 u' }# n! W7 |! W, c7 j
. o6 ?' z$ b4 s9 D0 Q 永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ 6 M* }( U1 m3 ]
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