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大小球盘本质上就是与全场入球总数相关的盘口,计算它的依据就是进球数的概率。
9 h5 o) H6 [0 |# l$ H; I我们先引入下列符号:/ @/ b* V# ]4 `) y
Pn(n=0;1;……;x)表示在一场比赛中可能出现的各个进球数的概率。+ m7 D6 j/ O% B0 s u5 Q
即:P0=全场进0球的概率;P1=全场进1球的概率;……。
8 _5 Y7 T& X9 l1 f5 v& T* l那么 ∑Pn=P0+P1+P2+……+Px=100%。; g/ Q2 S5 s& Q! x: `
Bo表示大球的投注总数,D表示投注大球的回报总数额,O(Over)表示大球的赔率。
) k: C4 ^1 S1 L2 e% bBu表示小球的投注总数,X表示投注小球的回报总数额,U(Under) 表示小球的赔率。7 B0 u% [+ p$ @) V% i$ w$ i
3 a; W. ^" ?: i" Q" E4 R, X5 W
在一场比赛中,我们以G表示大小球的盘口(G为任意数);K表示全场入球总数的结果。
! m9 k) Q7 A' d0 ^+ D$ q) L# U在任意盘口G下,全场比赛会出现如下3个结果:
0 P7 I" N# b# i( P {1:K>G 即出现我们通常所说的大球。* h6 ?. k! F9 m$ s( k; e3 L, e9 L3 u/ B m
2:K=G 即出现我们通常所说的走盘。. H* I8 ~$ _5 M' p
3:K<G 即出现我们通常所说的小球。
- B, R0 `- C w( {
& C2 _* f3 E. ~. h8 _那么在此盘口下投注大球的回报总数额为:% R/ v0 b1 Q) P! v$ A
D1:(K>G)={Bo* O 即赢盘获得与此盘口相对应赔率的回报。
* X$ J+ E* W& ]; qD2:(K=G)={Bo 即走盘退回本金。
/ z; u; _: Z" Z1 J8 yD3:(K<G)={0 即输盘失去本金。 ?8 r W* y: X
) |5 z: H/ k- U5 A' F$ U: O同理在此盘口下投注小球的回报总数额为:
) J0 f$ k/ M; k- l8 nX1:(K>G)={0 即输盘失去本金。( l: n! j: d7 d5 x$ r( \$ o: r
X2:(K=G)={Bu 即走盘退回本金。, i" x1 B. X# }3 X5 y5 G7 R: P0 k. \
X3:(K<G)={Bu*U 即赢盘获得与此盘口相对应赔率的回报。
" O& D8 E& f. x& V6 O# {2 N3 R# j7 j, r3 j! h
下面分别描述大小球盘为2.5球;2.5/3球;3球;3/3.5球时的大小球盘赔率计算方法,其余盘口可以由此类推。/ r/ z# m) T0 F
3 m; {- E1 K/ S* W, o1:大小球盘为2.5球(G=2.5)
1 h b8 [( s8 C# z; {4 K" X0 a$ D7 i# ^8 Y2 J
在大小球盘为2.5球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:, J9 G0 M, o' a
K=0 D0=0 . B6 Z7 V" G! Q8 k9 q4 }
K=1 D1=0
, _8 ?& ]# ]8 K4 p# x8 Y2 B+ xK=2 D2=0
" z* l) f& h! W0 lK=3;4;....x D3+= {Bo* O
9 f" d4 `2 }7 h S. r2 G8 p8 u8 X1 x+ }/ C8 o3 Z3 K
投注大球的期望回报总数为:∑D=Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2)=Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2)
" ]3 q$ X0 }" R, o1 }' d j在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。! H4 H% M- s! ]6 E+ f5 Y
∑D=Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2)=Bo9 F" @9 ]+ F5 V# a7 z4 \1 m F1 j
O*(1-P0-P1-P2)=1
6 y2 X* X j _" B) x 在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=1/(1-P0-P1-P2)
1 K0 K* i5 _) L7 }5 u- y& V2 P 或者表述为 O=1/∑Pn----------(这里n=3;4;……x)
. M, x# P1 u: }+ P. ]4 q
# Z, l3 d% \+ p' Y% C在大小球盘为2.5球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:* r* ` A( A& P7 R* B @
K=0 X0=Bu*U 4 f$ U6 U4 a: t6 H$ [9 j
K=1 X1=Bu*U
/ z: W( A" ]2 V& SK=2 X2=Bu*U
$ w2 i h( B6 _1 _$ _: BK=3;4;....x X3+=09 G) w; H, Z. _- t. m4 ]
# `5 u1 h& C8 c- e投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U. T+ ?0 E6 h2 C5 M3 P
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。# ~- t" M% U, p# S( i" j! i( j# v
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U=Bu
' W) B& W; Q, `7 i/ n8 u U*(P0+P1+P2)=1
2 |% l/ G, j" w& ]9 ] 在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=1/(P0+P1+P2)
5 y. x' x( y/ l) c) n0 r5 [
+ M9 C2 a7 h8 ?! j# Q7 F2:大小球盘为3球(G=3)
! f" _ ? d+ T# A3 L
7 c0 d9 l }4 \0 U N4 n在大小球盘为3球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:
: x8 T8 ^4 P! ]: IK=0 D0=0 8 @8 L, M: A- I# o$ H
K=1 D1=0 ! ?8 z, ^0 Z8 ^2 J! u* y9 Q
K=2 D2=0- ?& j: E8 j8 u' n+ M: {4 P9 q
K=3; D3= Bo$ I+ _9 n# m% @4 S+ H! J
K=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O % S# ~( d7 y& S. g0 C
) ]' b( O5 B5 K6 e' |; g+ c2 z
投注大球的期望回报总数为:/ f$ y$ a, x. E8 c2 d
∑D=P3* Bo +Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)= P3* Bo +Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
; j' K% U9 g2 ^. [ g; P在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。# I6 r6 ^, j K. ~8 H
∑D=P3* Bo +Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo
8 V( O* p! B2 A1 H P3+ O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1
4 R# z. V; @9 r( Z" Z' ^ 在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)& ]- L" R N& s. u; C& W& q; v( v
或者表述为 O=(1-P3)/∑Pn----------(这里n=4;5;……x)
+ ]8 b, y, c7 o! E3 u* m& ^, ]
) p9 i7 V- h3 @( H* d8 t在大小球盘为3球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:( ~* q* y4 Y: k2 Q
K=0 X0=Bu*U - U9 `6 V9 h# }
K=1 X1=Bu*U
: w' Z5 Y# o" I2 C5 nK=2 X2=Bu*U
$ j( Q' [2 M# X3 J2 i0 J- vK=3 X3= Bu+ M, s2 Z) W& P6 H, t3 b6 y
J=4;5;....x X4+=02 T0 C+ c. ], X: {' X! Z7 G8 s" S
7 h- o8 l- V3 T5 N) m- v
投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu$ w" Z7 `4 |8 `- E2 m
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。' Q+ V2 I8 J4 `7 V
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu =Bu
/ V- c* q% U t6 d9 |1 q* x7 I U*(P0+P1+P2)+P3=1+ p* v9 @" C& g# F% u# ]( N0 L* g1 m" A
在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3)/(P0+P1+P2)
J( i% B5 A1 `3 u( ], b# q6 O# o; _- |! d; z9 e' ^
3:大小球盘为2.5/3球(G=2.5/3)1 I* U( y2 j3 W+ F+ @
6 P0 |2 Z+ L) s3 n7 a# L3 q
在大小球盘为2.5/3球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:# @' d4 p; y. I* i+ l
K=0 D0=0
5 P7 z, k0 i. c0 u. C# y# z3 S; U4 vK=1 D1=0
3 H; e' T+ g/ g. H+ @1 b! aK=2 D2=0
2 N+ w1 c) K- x) XK=3; D3= Bo/2+ O*Bo/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在2.5球盘赢盘)+ c( r2 y( q7 D, b
K=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O # w4 k g$ o8 W' O( m# K. ?
1 J3 w0 W$ k0 e b, r: s投注大球的期望回报总数为:
/ W/ @, E3 I P3 Q ∑D=P3* Bo/2 +P3* O*Bo/2+Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)
! ?3 ]7 x( v2 | = P3* Bo/2 +P3* O* Bo/2+Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
2 y$ `( ^/ R. r9 _; ^7 ~在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。+ C, N$ L; b8 U& e
∑D=P3* Bo/2 +P3* O* Bo/2+Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo# k q/ {0 W8 z5 y. P8 x, x2 H
P3/2+ O* P3/2+O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1
2 T" i& D6 _ i1 u. w p O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3+ P3/2)=1- P3/2- d/ a1 c7 R7 Z6 f+ A/ J& G
在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3/2)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3/2)
6 k- {3 ], h$ K
3 G2 o8 b' c1 Q& k在大小球盘为2.5/3球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:! q5 r6 p7 i. h* p2 K2 u) G
K=0 X0=Bu*U 9 O o- C6 J+ ~) H( E- c
K=1 X1=Bu*U " [% ^* G' {+ n0 X! p
K=2 X2=Bu*U
# i$ L9 F# A* u2 R+ zK=3 X3= Bu/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在2.5球盘输盘)
. X# O* Y1 q+ wJ=4;5;....x X4+=0
% V- h' x9 I# t/ H8 l V2 Z/ Q% b8 g
投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/22 ]7 E1 w1 f& j3 c
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
" Q1 R) K$ |$ l5 W" {7 _9 g# ~ ∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2 =Bu
9 H" t6 ~- L2 I" Z+ R( V U*(P0+P1+P2)+P3/2=1' U( L. G# f5 E* j/ v& c" W2 }
在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3/2)/(P0+P1+P2)8 M3 b+ O( @5 X
) u0 a: e1 \7 Z0 I. D% Z4:大小球盘为3/3.5球(G=3/3.5)
( T0 G& @; \" A" a, j3 k! s5 _
( M' G0 y+ L# N) e7 C8 Y在大小球盘为3/3.5球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:
! e: p8 C0 [8 zK=0 D0=0 + _0 ~, g* p2 k( s4 {
K=1 D1=0
* z! \; n3 w9 uK=2 D2=0
9 V* x* w( T0 j( {- N9 [- vK=3; D3= Bo/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在3.5球盘输盘)
1 F+ k7 I5 |8 g4 U( l) s+ YK=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O " B6 t4 e) @& t& P6 W
4 j: r3 e, ?, L' C
投注大球的期望回报总数为:
3 K m( s9 Y! k: z. i ∑D=P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)
* h5 B, W$ U3 Y = P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)9 `- g4 { g9 j9 t: A0 T7 {4 T# `* |
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。* j. F# x5 _% x; u
∑D=P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo2 `5 W/ Y9 x+ Z6 T$ V7 j$ O
P3/2+ O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1 C1 y* s: J% w7 m4 J$ ?
O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1- P3/2
, U }* F/ E! l9 o- I/ f& W# v 在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3/2)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
& C, `. `" g2 o6 V' @) I( G: O/ T3 ^ 或者表述为 O=(1-P3/2)/∑Pn----------(这里n=4;5;……x)
( d7 B% C9 e9 B+ g( R* O
5 r. d& F3 Q: n9 q- }在大小球盘为3/3.5球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:) Q! i3 Y: L# h( e" A% a) j
K=0 X0=Bu*U
; |: R* V& r% u8 UK=1 X1=Bu*U - Y3 Q+ }- `" {" d7 R8 y
K=2 X2=Bu*U 6 K* C# c3 o" k
K=3 X3= Bu/2+U* Bu/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在3.5球盘赢盘). \2 g- t' h, Z7 I/ N: F/ J6 R
J=4;5;....x X4+=0
3 J5 u; L$ k* K" _9 E% h [( n! o" l# Q! l7 N3 W' h
投注小球的期望回报总数为:8 r" k& F# V7 S- d* b
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2+ P3*U* Bu/2
. `+ e; X1 L7 K- r在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。: K0 k& O# X9 J4 q; v. N
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2+ P3*U* Bu/2 =Bu
: V q: U9 M: f# S7 L+ H" d( } U*(P0+P1+P2+ P3/2)+P3/2=1
U. p% q0 i- D* Y2 ^. D+ J( { 在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3/2)/(P0+P1+P2+P3/2)/ D/ Y. b5 s+ L- L$ e, N
( B* w! N6 f/ D" H$ b- }: e5 e& J# [7 U: K- `
一场足球比赛就是以主,客进球数最终是多少来体现其结果的.
X0 p# z! x' j& N大部分博项的赔率都可以通过进球概率这个基本数据实现互相转换!
7 P- Z) v$ H% G$ {% t" k7 a9 m$ n. S. e5 S' n4 z
P0 P1 P2 P3 P41可以由统计函数生成,也可以由开盘赔率计算得出,比如用波胆赔率计算。(这种方法计算出的Pn值有一定的偏差) |
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