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21点算牌与当日冲销类似,坐在赌桌等机会,算到好牌下大注。, ]1 a2 V, {" R1 {* y0 Z% U
算牌时将牌分成小牌(2-6)及大牌(10JQKA),789不重要不算。自第一手自0开始看到小牌加1大牌减1。: a/ h* L& _6 v  D$ c. X1 }
依剩馀副数调整真数供下注及打牌参考。
: O" e6 M0 |# @- e假设你面对6副牌基本输率0.25%赌桌,算到真1平均赢DC0.25%,应该下多少钱?下几手?每一真1算牌客平均多赢0.5%,真2赢0.75%,真3+1.25%。
$ ]" w$ m$ y* E5 l# i) j4 t  l真数愈高表示看到小牌多剩下大牌多庄家(必须补到17点)易爆,大牌愈多算牌客应少加牌、多投降、多赌倍、多分牌。
; k( G& u. B5 h  \+ |例如基本策略12 versus 庄3加牌,真2以上时不加。打多大打几门依赌本,风险偏好及同桌门数而不同。
" g$ o0 D- d$ s  @  Y假设使用50万美元,依半凯利下注……面对1%获利机会下1/2%的赌本,赌本加倍前输光的风险约1.8%(平均98.2%可以成功把赌本加倍)。4 [$ f9 w/ U9 d# [  t' {, `
玩21点时下注后还会分牌及赌倍使下注增加,因此2%收益率不应下1%赌本,而是1%的76%……0.76%。
; }" W( M4 `; n) u  D. L( j5 Z' V, o' C如果只下一门0.76%但下二门风险分散总下注额可以增加46%……下一门0.76%,下二门二门各0.56%合计1.12%,下三门总下注额可以增加71%!下三门各0.43%,合计1.3%。! G* P9 V& E1 M: q
把500,000赌本代入,各种情形之下注额如下:
0 f) |0 R- j9 I* ^+ Q" S6 R下一门 下二门合计 下三门合计
' B* p, \9 B! z1 L1 b# q7 K真1 500 700 8006 A. M6 `$ u$ A4 U6 ^) M6 U, @
真2 1400 2100 2400! S+ K" a8 C$ ~
真3 2400 3500 41004 K6 K% i* y4 G0 t. T2 n
真4 3300 4900 57004 W* H" Z, V2 N
真5 4300 6200 7300
9 S' L; O# e$ D4 X4 {& k' X真6 5200 7600 8900! m: o/ j! \+ c, D, P2 W: I
真7 6200 9000 10,600
6 [0 t6 T9 q7 h" j* I4 D如果有选择,好牌时应该下几门?% v- U/ e8 _, w) t
Don Schleisinger在《Blackjack Attack》一书中分析如下:
5 a, U1 G. e2 v假设你打7位赌桌,单独打,同桌有另一人,另二人,另三人,另四人,你打几门最好?假设顶注500元一人下一门100次约540张牌(平均一轮一位用2.7张牌),下二门只能下67次(540÷8.1)下三门下50次(540÷10.8)则风险相同下(一门下500元风险与二门共下730元及三门共下855元风险相同)下一门总下注额最高:
5 |3 Z: G2 y  x一人打 下注次数 总下注额6 g( @# G% }* R/ d) L
下一门 100 50,000*% e$ `$ u) `8 F& a
下二门 67 48,910, U+ q' m0 N" k0 d* l
下三门 50 42,750
7 p' V  |7 l7 g; C- z8 M*即风险相同下下一门总下注额最高(获利最高)。: w4 ~4 L8 g/ h9 l
若同桌有另一人下一门:
; q/ E- e: p% g1 f! E. ?& Z. J6 g二人打 下注次数 总下注额5 F3 D: P5 o/ ]9 s( j/ c; k5 b
你下一门 67 33,520
* N$ _) f4 t- ^, \0 q8 Z: ~你下二门 50 36,500*2 o: r# ~" w* n: i+ s
你下三门 40 34,200
* q4 t# K7 z0 n3 _/ y*即下二门总获利最高。
! ]6 ~8 E) _1 V! O# |! Y. @若同桌有人下二门:+ z# v9 ^, l/ y" e% R  Q9 |
三人打 下注次数 总下注额# o0 V# q3 K$ ]5 G, E  p/ A
你下一门 50 25,000
( u# X; _( p3 x0 C7 {你下二门 40 29,200*, r. P% e1 u* t" k
你下三门 33 28,215
, Z0 F) J+ M! u7 @* z/ c*也是下二门总获利最高。
6 g' }/ n/ ~7 P' z若同桌有人下三门:
" ]9 k4 k* w) x4 D; Z4 r四人打 下注次数 总下注额& W& V8 E- _; j6 d% W
你下一门 40 20,000  y5 N0 _# T: l7 e, P$ @* x
你下二门 33 24,0906 {+ d2 V$ ?. _. |/ U: Z
你下三门 29 24,795*
6 [* P1 i% y* ]" S*下三门好。; i$ t) h( `. C& Z8 L
五人打 下注次数 总下注额9 ~" r* h/ R% J2 x. _
你下一门 33 16,5206 s. j  W8 v/ T& _5 u. Z6 e
你下二门 29 21,170/ ?- T/ h: v3 T6 }4 E
你下三门 25 21,375*( t% i& g6 n7 ^8 ?# N3 e" j
*下三门好。" E9 a5 b  `  G2 \1 T) f) m/ l
综合而言,在上限以内时,一人打打一门,二人打打二门,三人打打二门,四人及五人打打三门,但若仔细看其实一律打二门与最适打差得有限。如一人打时只差2%(50,000与48,910比),四人打差3%,五人打差1%因此好牌时一律打二门无妨。
2 L3 Z6 h5 }3 W1 h注意「上限以内」为前提。  m0 i/ O, m4 F7 }0 {1 U
如果上限为500,好牌应下1000,则即使只一人打也应打二门甚至三门,又最后一回不必省牌多打几门无妨。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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