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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 $ W9 I4 V( @% o6 M/ A, H0 p5 t$ Z
余勋也不例外、 * F7 S9 o8 R$ x3 z
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
. S9 ]. R- \3 j6 H是保经济的重要决策！ * h& T, e; e5 U! O
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 7 @% I- [ n8 _7 y
低点26700-32400、 5 t1 J( H; U' F! t1 o$ u
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 ( y Z. W+ B1 V3 k w
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
) u! B- o0 f7 U, d大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
2 ?7 t* y7 ?2 S" M5 C2 F: r" x# _涨幅就已回撤过半！
6 k: @2 s2 n# }" K3 W. W! l$ T所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 5 u5 P$ S& e& P8 R$ R8 ]$ u" W
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
2 B! z# R- G% \. T5 X! d. V. P+ @其次、 1 i& X8 n) p/ }
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
* E2 ?0 Z! b% g* R0 y每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
) y3 ?5 }3 |6 ?. b% D1 u等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
0 G2 E2 q: q7 a# x美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 . V* }8 P0 Y# |2 `+ F$ {
但回到币圈、 ) Z' U8 @0 |9 l0 n. R! s& s' O. V+ w
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
( d6 Q# {% T. u- y4 \" C在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 . D, [8 e5 [0 H+ c! ~
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 7 n. `! ?$ Z/ d: B
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 ) p# z. W& }9 _0 i; z/ L
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
+ b* y& j% Y; P* _/ q对当前的底部、影响有限。 7 S- i9 ^% Y1 W/ ~
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
: ~4 O% B" i3 B/ U所以27000、即是
5 l" a) m& N8 b, V7 l! Z& P去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） * b4 o u! V+ M& z, c4 _( c. X* U
同时还是去年放水初期低点、
& r# {0 m( H: s* c& W- W$ q5 H也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
& P1 }- `5 O2 s; r6 j7 W6 a由此得出的结论是、 ! E5 N" I# n1 K/ y! A1 ]% ^) B7 a
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 ) F$ h2 u2 m9 s) v4 G
点位不会出现太大偏离。 ( G2 F6 w5 g; B! y
综合以上、 ! }, @2 \: p1 Y$ g
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 ' L2 L H. e2 O$ K0 I% v
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
* p% k; @7 `4 ]5 }那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 3 n7 f8 T5 ]% ]! M% n
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
6 O* F# [0 J% e那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 " O8 T$ s! y; u. d
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 # f4 x0 t# C+ c$ ]: T) F) `& H
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 / f1 r9 F4 A9 G7 n o
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
3 e( y3 x/ V- H' M& v6 I大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 + `1 S T/ F: `" b" X& I2 J) y
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
1 ^: h- d' _" N2 v6 K% u高空需至31700-32000间布局、 6 Z: i" P* K' x4 M1 V( M6 z) G( h
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
3 q! Z3 J6 A3 K6 x4 |得不偿失。
) F! o; b* c* V, g来源：金色财经 |
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