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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
0 A/ s& k6 t* J9 a4 U余勋也不例外、
2 c, j z# Y/ Y- g+ J其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 3 V* E- q" [; z. b
是保经济的重要决策！ * ]3 r! N) k, Y8 M4 ]6 k
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 ' J3 ~# U l: P' q5 s( w0 t5 J
低点26700-32400、
; L8 t2 G! c, R0 {% I0 A反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 I$ Z! `3 y/ P
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 ( O2 V) a& x! N1 }- A& c
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 . o9 e1 i3 c O" u& A
涨幅就已回撤过半！ % i" l0 V+ h l" s
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 & C8 }! X, A3 @ w2 g
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 - w: ?' P9 U# g8 V; B( J5 A
其次、 . q+ r* t* Y) {% y2 E3 Q
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
; ?- ^* @, M$ J! V8 y每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 2 Y( H. H2 H o: k$ k7 X! B8 p# S S
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 4 I8 \' D) Z4 o' Q" Z) v8 }0 p9 |
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 , B( B" D& B8 F& ?/ Q
但回到币圈、 2 `4 \6 e- e4 U3 F
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 + c$ @: n3 l2 T, U+ | A
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
" q1 V# J1 N2 O而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
4 D; N+ c/ y* j+ m8 M个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
8 h8 x. i6 ^/ C5 x9 x& `6 {1 q% }9 p缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 1 X- n9 j E+ V
对当前的底部、影响有限。 2 V0 t1 U( M/ C- c4 u; B* N' F
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 & x4 U8 ]4 u4 [
所以27000、即是 " v$ F- ?8 p) F/ G( t
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
' ]# e: [' V9 j4 Y同时还是去年放水初期低点、 7 U( X8 l% N- z+ g
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
0 z, i! w5 b9 R; u$ I由此得出的结论是、 # V% Z6 p& p; j& a( [
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 ( H+ V+ q! h) Y/ p
点位不会出现太大偏离。
1 t1 \: q! B+ Z6 ^综合以上、 $ g6 l- n& c2 O( Y6 S8 _" r- ^
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 ) p! Q& |) Z" A
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 / `% J+ [+ W7 q- j. A
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 0 z% X" h# v, H. B5 T4 F: g
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
) U ?- j' m+ X那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
4 i4 W# s! |9 C, `. H, G即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
% h# R3 s$ q( _9 B; l* W8 ]' W美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 / X7 Y9 \. v2 l9 [/ V
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
3 \( n" c+ }1 D! v8 t大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
0 L) d+ R7 B: ~0 a9 R9 u逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
+ P$ ~: D% {, |7 j; Q' D" E5 R% z高空需至31700-32000间布局、
; X8 c" k' g) X. b3 M, ^: u反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
' C$ r6 O2 G: W1 }得不偿失。 : t* o; l1 ~( x k' M6 d6 {
来源：金色财经 |
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