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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
. P! l$ Y( `1 Y) l! E! W0 V余勋也不例外、 2 v( h% Q- B' p& u& z( U" u |# P0 y
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
/ K/ y- l, M3 c3 R9 b4 g是保经济的重要决策！
4 C8 q/ J2 k# h0 w% q$ V这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
! T/ p$ f; U' }低点26700-32400、 9 \: P( H" V+ y! d) F+ O3 N5 T' w
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
6 ?, q9 H+ n3 S但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
4 E( z( p. k# f3 L: F大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 3 _' y% E) H2 S: d1 N* M8 u. l/ x
涨幅就已回撤过半！
7 S1 I7 _' J4 c2 N* {所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 8 {3 }2 d0 v5 V0 l! l5 `
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 4 [8 @* |' H# @! M2 l! r
其次、
K& E# O0 Y9 z缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
4 r3 z$ r o' ?每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
5 l; x2 R) H5 @( R8 s等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 & t/ e( `6 V' E: {
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
5 b+ n4 v- ^# N0 }" ^# Y% u( S但回到币圈、 1 T' k+ |4 ~( }$ n/ c2 b
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 6 l- `$ v- N. T) u! A
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 . V# Z. ~) {2 ]5 ^
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 ; ?1 k% U& f! x7 Y! r3 Y
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 * X- Q7 j/ \+ y" g! ^" u
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
, r4 L4 m# P* O8 a9 B0 U7 t对当前的底部、影响有限。
" N0 H0 ^$ O" n$ X. F4 `最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 " P8 T9 a2 Y* `# D- Y3 {
所以27000、即是 3 }6 d( [- s I v% d
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） ! l8 t; d$ B7 `: b
同时还是去年放水初期低点、
7 Z$ R' F+ \5 c: U4 V# [也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 V5 w( l1 f+ ~
由此得出的结论是、
3 p: X4 p) ^$ W: ~: J加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 6 l% ~. Y) M0 P/ W
点位不会出现太大偏离。 % a9 ?4 K( q* a* y' h ~% ?5 I
综合以上、 2 n6 }! B" m! d: ~: \- c/ Z
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
2 \( `+ B5 J0 q9 b在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 ; @ C, Q6 y+ B
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 6 n. h! D3 F, h5 F0 s/ D, r
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 7 r( |5 W0 V. S; u9 R
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 3 [% X( U; H, t& o3 ]4 a6 i. ^
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
N' ]" c# h/ z' v& U( Y美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 9 a. X, [# R, M) \' t3 h
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
2 K1 M3 o+ c; P" C大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 & v5 N8 l- I4 K8 K1 v
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 ; W9 W" l7 p2 ^8 l4 o8 r3 x
高空需至31700-32000间布局、 ' n' ]$ W Q$ O! e- i9 \
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 " v3 R: _5 G2 D+ Z! t* U* C/ t' o: \2 c
得不偿失。 - ]% }7 o+ F1 e, A5 i% t
来源：金色财经 |
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