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小分3种情况:
; w6 H& N3 @! `; z+ x/ [+ J+ n
- P& c! V5 L t1 N% a' k! y. m3 Z1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。) P" `. m) @$ @
) `* r) Z, Q& \+ f* d1 K2 Z
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。+ f5 |, }4 n9 v6 Q* [
, j/ W2 Q* E5 }' A" n3 C/ y9 p, n; c
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。! q$ q5 g" ^9 J
/ X7 _, B1 n8 T7 u' `: k2张牌8或9点的情况有:
0 {4 s3 J& e; R% b6 |6 H2 k0 Z8 m! H" z8 W) e# E
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
* s0 @7 a$ q. }+ n/ A! X4 Y: x" \3 A; C: `0 P
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415! o& l2 N% A/ n0 {- `4 ~ O
4 O8 `/ Y9 W& l/ P+ ?
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415( x( Z9 E$ x" c& I' I' i
1 C, L3 g5 j# e1 b8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
5 J, T0 i* }. ]# H" }1 D2 w# g( C. c/ k; r. [! A% \7 d& E
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。- P1 S+ X# K* ~
2 j( P3 ]6 H. I8 ?
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。, O0 A" Q7 q3 E0 _' {' a; S4 l
& L" V! n3 d! V1 S2 \* ?9 h3 v那么我们可以得出6 Y. h2 ? K9 _7 v
% d8 e, z+ `9 x3 q' X4 f1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662% o% Z' O+ r f6 G2 m1 M) ^
7 E: T* w; k A% @& Z) \
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171
9 d, P' q" R! i" D* Y! N) }1 l% ~* q* T2 N' }2 j' |
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
! T+ x$ S4 P; S$ L# C4 K/ Y6 M+ k5 h+ H2 |4 |" q
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
5 C7 }0 {- G$ y7 g+ o$ I! T& F. d& T
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
, D5 I5 Y I/ l0 f9 t ~& b |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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