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" O3 y. s! v! M6 h) B! s) H6 s比特币最近甚至大幅跑赢了自10月底以来一直走高的道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数。 d, A. o* X2 M2 t2 z
. n. }- }2 }$ ^4 |- b& {* i* d监管机构有望很快批准首只现货比特币交易所交易基金(ETF)是比特币上涨背后的主要推动力，0 v2 m8 ]1 C( v& _" `) G
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专家预测，这将引发投资者对数字资产的新一轮兴趣。 6 A1 s4 W, A- F/ D' @1 F
6 F$ ]% N7 a: R$ Z) u/ A有关美联储明年将多次降息的预期升温也给比特币带来提振，利率下降通常利好比特币和科技4 V3 y) H, n6 w2 r! U4 w2 J5 @
9 i. x0 d/ h( q' z2 X/ \" q$ b股等风险较高的投资。 " j8 I4 a/ X& _- ~, }
; `( w* H! R* J9 x$ `8 F) `! ?芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的美联储观察(FedWatch)工具显示，联邦基金期货交易员预计，美联储
. J2 c' B& j) F" y; l; a' X/ J& b5 U% a7 v2 u/ J1 r! \
明年3月降息25个基点的概率超过50%，高于一周前的21.5%。
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+ A% {$ t0 t) F8 b; m" u0 J H" U现在的问题是，比特币接下来会怎么走？除了供应和需求之外，比特别几乎没有什么基本面驱动. j& u. i6 B: m4 i: q4 K# f9 r
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因素，但分析人士认为，比特币还有更大的上涨空间。 & ~" o0 _2 O# k) e0 P! t% I
& W/ B/ l/ k0 b6 F从技术面来看，比特币在过去被证明波动非常大的一个区间内拥有上涨动能。 ' j$ E o* i, n: D" I* V8 U
+ z4 x7 X. C; ? H更广泛地来看，虽然比特币有进入超买区域的风险，但交易数据显示，交易量仍然相对低迷，因此
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c% L+ U5 F' ^' Z仍有许多交易商可能买入。 * b* i t2 k" @
. M& [* Y* i% [7 `" U! J, L2 K+ q* ]
库普齐克维奇说：“越来越多的投资者会因为‘害怕错过’(FOMO)而买入。”FOMO是加密货币最强大的: R' f; @7 P8 C6 g. w0 v9 C
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推动力之一。
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02
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6 I2 u- D3 Q( v6 r" l$ \8 U有证据显示，许多散户和机构交易员仍在离场观望，近期的上涨可能会吸引更多人买入。 - Q4 V0 O$ y1 h. L+ x0 G6 F0 J
: C2 V4 w1 m4 f0 V+ s9 a5 v1 w需求增加的同时，比特币供应紧张——许多长期持有者不愿卖出，价格可能还会走高。 8 f1 \8 i1 g# a c* f# N
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加密金融服务公司Galaxy Digital的研究主管亚历克斯·索恩(Alex Thorn)说：“这次反弹让很多感兴趣
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的人离场观望，他们可能会随后参与进来。虽然最近已经大幅上涨，但比特币仍有继续上涨的空间。” , N* y, ?; W) n
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数字资产基金ProChain Capital总裁兼联合创始人大卫·塔威尔(David Tawil)预计，比特币将持续反弹至
7 {8 r w. l" s! q. ?3 C7 Y' s* Z) \% ?$ b9 f( A5 w9 z
今年年底，比特币ETF获批时，价格达到4.7万美元的高位。 * i3 m' Y% y$ j2 n2 |" c3 w
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