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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人. a# E6 K) n5 {" F9 D
$ A' Q; G. _: i: `
认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，: t; H# _' ?' G G8 O' t1 D- M3 ^
) j& C; y0 _$ n. G& L! r9 E2 w而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富 ?# F0 T x1 {8 C7 R
6 r" q& g! t6 n) [8 K( x的千禧一代。' l1 Q- |& D$ e/ w
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB
3 P( |9 a4 c. m+ w( U F( N" P! O# S a; e
的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“
! o& c- b, B, ]& t, o- u* U! J/ t/ T e" |
时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
" _* X( B; ] A, k l7 L: ?
. F. F+ E9 r/ ]' M3 g密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据 v ?9 g( Q' Q4 {' p
' \) P" j' u4 S2 q- ?8 `《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成
8 Q, V& x4 o1 K4 Z5 H# N/ U" ~) x$ z* @% p0 q
的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
% p" B) Q2 Y7 Z8 w4 J% s+ w( X8 D. q3 L! n' P. X1 @% w! p
报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
, w1 [( s. O; }; s9 K, w) X# v' J# |$ f. ?/ z
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
) r! ~: l; ^4 s1 U' O, \3 ?" s# b+ A" r
ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。% c! {. W* \/ G9 r$ p3 \4 b
& p" M8 X% \ g V据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
/ z6 W* b: U$ `6 ^ A* d& Q- {
; c! H8 D( R$ ~ O息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。9 }4 |5 [0 c5 D# O. X
0 H3 P0 U, R, L6 X) e+ A
与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密
* Z2 m/ A/ n4 h8 `7 G
7 u# F% k0 u. r# `" O世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富
- V* o; q1 g7 Y9 ^6 R) H1 G/ }8 g8 v& A, X
传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不" F5 | \$ c, R7 m1 n
: R0 e+ r. l4 j: `
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
4 U9 c3 I( V& l n6 L4 C' a* U8 i+ W7 Z+ H' k2 B$ \- l3 }
代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成1 C4 b! X' n3 F- K5 t9 d
: ~& S. k1 t$ J本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体/ g8 p# h) C: `- C" Q$ \ m" Z7 w! q
0 h1 N, @2 r' v系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货6 ?: v+ j' e; ~2 W7 [; N
# r1 i0 f8 D* H9 @6 b* V% c币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致9 m! l! m- L9 j: f( f' @" E
- M! S. b& `. ^% s& R未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富3 }' @5 i7 Q. N" L2 s
6 X! h. X4 k# ^/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
1 s2 x0 E/ O' }7 a) v8 |
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