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加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为 i' Q7 P2 h5 C2 m8 w3 R5 _/ z
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，3 n5 t, p4 ^* k% d8 H! s3 I. ^
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
' Z" E' J, Y9 G: G" H/ A. Q一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
* `* w) F/ D% I- QBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
7 s4 s* E5 M" bPantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：
5 b% D4 ?6 k; b2024年4月第四次减半; ?9 S# w# g, z1 @
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
7 _+ o7 z+ t$ z4 e+ b( I可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
$ B2 s7 Z) {% E针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
; V- J+ n4 G n0 G5 V二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务/ ~' `6 K4 `0 E1 F8 m% G* K; g
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
3 z6 r7 [/ u+ h- `; [; tPantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
. K) ?# z7 a5 I6 P诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。" e! A$ N7 @1 P3 g) ~
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
( H0 i) {4 T) T7 m* L. {) d除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
, z Q0 v6 C% s {% v0 |$ Z金融(TradFi)产品。0 s4 A6 o4 U8 |5 l* |, I
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨6 }2 G! c8 {" d
链桥」的项目。8 j- l) | f/ h1 C. P3 p5 }3 |
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉+ Y6 g+ q" O! a0 _
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作4 ^- F& m0 @) F# t W- H( C
等。
& L5 @/ y) H6 IPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用/ @) ?3 N1 j4 T- k% l
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。" ]8 ?" `8 k$ U. z7 I8 T
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN* o+ U# F2 Y1 E3 I6 z* ]5 p
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
5 `( W; O9 J" ^3 [' J* V. `数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。" Q+ ^1 Q+ S5 o$ ?. y( G9 P
Pantera点名了几个项目：$ K' s! |$ l& E" [2 h6 h2 q
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图4 a# R6 t3 Z! e$ E& z! ^/ K
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
" x% w, C. R6 {0 N! r% a: j/ n" r# MModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
; L# s8 e. P9 E9 g5 IThe Graph：链上知识图谱计划
: C; v6 L3 \# ]4 l8 p3 v, V( @% X4 O" CRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游) @; \# j+ @! j/ i) c; j
六、小型公链需专注特定应用
) C7 Q! {* [* M8 @Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚+ t* \! r, U. m. X Q) O% M
至能直接与L2竞争。, c o, F6 E' ~/ b P7 c' |
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。% b/ O2 Q6 `9 B( t: I, C) t) `
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
" a( H" _) g, X/ l/ r3 j成为「应用链」。$ n4 V( E% k( P, k1 p- O* x
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。4 }8 T2 w; o6 a- i1 H
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