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" R% ~1 U& _# {: j& b) A2 r加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为9 X4 M; ?% {" w2 T/ }
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，0 j2 p4 w# ?( T
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
6 o3 V* x8 V$ o! V( f; c" `一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
( I8 \7 r& W* W! x2 H0 rBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
! s W7 d9 q7 oPantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：
- F# D5 [# A7 b, e* b6 T3 N/ A2024年4月第四次减半
; m& c# A* ?5 Z" ~机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF5 k1 ~. B3 p1 I8 x0 H1 `) h7 t
可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
\4 k8 x% w4 P- C3 V8 x- X! ]针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。' D2 F# {4 N. P, Q* {$ ~
二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务& F4 y9 X! i' U1 U" T5 D; P8 d
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。9 q1 T7 c5 P& a4 F9 M5 b
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠4 p" Y5 D+ ^. Y( R7 U
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。! v& }) l- D% _; p* u
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁% H) ] }: @' c+ F" ^
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
9 }: ~1 g7 N, |" x金融(TradFi)产品。. e& p) L8 u6 x6 F( y0 U9 a8 m4 d
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
?9 s$ r$ n0 [4 w链桥」的项目。
; f9 e6 R4 B- w% E% m四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
( ?1 Q5 c* _0 x/ `, a& p, E模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
1 E2 |3 P3 D0 S5 o" ~! B- ^% \8 E7 t7 \等。0 t) ?( W A! @% e
Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用0 {' Q" _! b: a& D6 ]
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。 G; Z) A- E" C# U, K( k
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN9 W0 q5 l `# X. V0 W, e/ R/ B
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
% S# m7 u/ N5 V数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。: R/ D- Z0 s2 @% a2 v: T
Pantera点名了几个项目：7 J& t$ S T& a4 \7 M8 T# j7 i
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图% [! d5 W3 Q& w* D7 D+ s
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台: R4 S7 W7 q. ?0 X0 J8 R9 e
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
1 @2 U5 i4 F4 G% g x2 BThe Graph：链上知识图谱计划
$ L- q5 ^$ t4 m _Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游
; k8 {9 f+ d# ^5 D六、小型公链需专注特定应用
i$ N7 Q5 @. h, u. u; hPantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
, E O# S# @) R% P/ @至能直接与L2竞争。
/ x9 C! [% U% k& f' c也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。% L$ ^+ ^5 |, D- ?/ v# |# B) |& D# I
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
1 c+ k# t+ M% g* E成为「应用链」。
: c: f8 O$ t! R9 K* E9 K5 W事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。
, P- A; E' j+ p1 ]& c C( M# S: I" {) @6 G# s$ z2 b6 j" H$ E, h: |
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