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+ @( _$ `0 m% Z" O& E& v加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
& T7 c# G5 R0 `3 `DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，& x9 ]( e, `' L- g
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。* @; j7 s1 T3 y/ H$ z
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.03 G. N V' H/ j$ W/ k/ y6 h
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
, R# l- v# [( E, Q0 `Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：& Y7 [& y' v7 m' T8 U
2024年4月第四次减半, q, z8 o) i7 ^6 ]
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
* o$ o# g) l8 b3 C( u可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock): \6 {0 V/ l5 A) h# Q: q& e6 J: j) ]
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
$ ]8 U! y0 N& {# f二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
7 [% w% @1 P+ {+ {: d/ P' J9 p1 Xfriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
( f! e& M4 W6 u. m' XPantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠4 h# E) Z& c- c- z
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。. Q( \' U. W" ?# u5 K5 K
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁/ v/ F: G+ j. w2 d$ Q& ~' d3 U3 X, f
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
- @" D% w2 M# `( f金融(TradFi)产品。
+ W9 h' `8 n: q如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
7 r8 Y4 G" L# r3 \7 \8 L2 X1 m o链桥」的项目。
" p3 i {( i. k& @ O: g' ]) k四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
X) K) R+ V8 t% j6 R模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
3 C; t" G% R- _( Z等。
( [# g( C" [* I( g# K' z% r- |Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用& a7 N, k$ P6 I0 ~* P1 J7 [- [
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
7 Y1 S% Q1 I5 `* I! G五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN- Y1 M4 u4 l1 j* c F d. D
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
8 k$ ]+ _) k; o- c数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
% ]4 Y# z: Y- A! F+ uPantera点名了几个项目：( J* ]; N2 F0 x( m; C8 Y) {0 y3 ?
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
: e D% c! ]1 \7 lBittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
6 i R. K8 l# s6 F( n! `( B; mModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品$ J1 z, D' M: a. w% r
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划% B' ]7 a4 A m# m H
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游
* c) P2 \3 |0 x! Y( g! S- l六、小型公链需专注特定应用; s) g: m8 w( K; A2 u4 S. C
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚! K0 D8 A; C- j* x% z1 ]. O. R8 j
至能直接与L2竞争。4 ?. ?( c+ |, P6 P7 ?) J
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
4 g" X3 o9 K+ [# j7 H3 QPantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
$ p# X# C3 Y; b8 a成为「应用链」。
9 D: I3 \! v9 l2 Y事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。
8 [) ?" M' d7 F4 j \" f1 c* |2 |0 f
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