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国盛证券今日发文分析称,参考黄金ETF推出对金价的推动,
+ R: y( B% ]! A& o" m& K! }6 b
, J" T! S6 {( D% b- y比特币现货ETF值得期待。黄金ETF的推出对金价产生积极推动,+ }1 D; K0 }/ E: n
$ A+ S6 P' I/ \
这对比特币现货ETF有着积极的启示。需要注意的是,世界对黄
4 s2 T Q' |! `3 l
3 r; \, [8 _. N, k) y金的认可并非由现货ETF而产生,而若比特币现货ETF获批,则意# S7 V* u+ W3 ~* M7 i
, t+ S# m, g9 Q3 Y3 J0 o! w0 [味着庞大的传统财富世界对比特币、甚至Web3.0世界的认可,将4 a& M8 R8 n0 \& m, g9 G' k8 F) }
2 x; @2 _7 \; L. _
进一步加速两者的融合。这是一个从0到1的过程,边际变化远超6 O& U( M* l, d* x) v1 F# ]
+ s& H& A; {' A- d是黄金ETF获批。 ( l8 t; ~3 g0 q; i
: ~) `9 f( U' { v' W, h; H/ N
当然,另一层面不同的是,比特币总数固定在2100万枚,而黄金, X( R x* x: w5 Y' P
3 w7 C+ k3 ], ]7 S7 e, x仍然有不断的新增产出。比特币现货ETF在美获批,有望带来增量
6 G! l$ p" x) M: U! R# p' a, Z) p4 H, ~" p
资金。Galaxy Digital测算得到的结论是:比特币在现货ETF获批的
/ k8 ?+ N/ F: C$ \( k# F" C; L( Z6 |4 u* j0 t: W/ C5 x
第一年内预计上涨74%(以2023年9月30日比特币价格26920美元
( G7 [; x. y6 _, K
5 e- `8 ` o1 K0 u9 F为起点);在较长时间内,投资比特币产品的潜在资金规模为1250亿2 q$ Q% F% w0 S
% Y. V/ E7 j i# p* l
美元至4500亿美元之间。: i3 `7 r2 J1 y1 m5 A; Y
8 U, P. o0 D% c! r
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