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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘" D7 L$ }* b6 s" Y7 W, {
6 R; a! G' d% a0 Q0 J/ _ 平手中水,主队有利
8 {- t% r& }0 f. ` 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。 R% \$ G5 G0 s/ s- m; Q- { C" t2 k
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
. P+ T- ]3 @$ M& L# @ 英超主队
6 P. E/ W X0 e; o 胜:13场 48%
8 P; p# `# G( O) Z" B0 i 平:5场 17%
5 y# n, g3 r6 K: q+ T9 }0 y 负:9场 35%% M% h6 y, D1 P( n
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
, @% V' D w) h5 a
( {2 O. R; N* t3 H$ D 一、初盘阶段
4 I) w% h+ d% j 具体到水位如下:
; D( r4 O5 t" n* W# e/ V* |" V 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负8 Q9 ^$ p9 K/ t5 @& [8 z
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
' W1 W5 s9 x2 ^3 S, S. E 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
8 z- S/ P% J9 x/ B* ~
! f( ?9 F4 Q+ ]. H. t7 G 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。: P+ H$ @# I1 `
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。4 p, j( `; Y# r. b0 B' \4 H
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
( m$ ?' Z/ f) K- I2 m p3 s6 ?
+ x4 F0 j/ Q* H5 ]/ U# y 二、临场阶段
* Z2 k% m7 n2 M. ?6 |( b$ c # g! |$ @# [) P! }# g8 U$ {& i6 K
具体到变盘和水位如下:
: L3 D. h7 C" t, @! l r, w 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负 ?9 H, ?# T3 c0 V. F4 f
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负7 w8 [1 }) C1 [% C) w/ \. B
+ p2 Z, c7 y8 W/ @, b 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。4 f, l6 h$ e1 ^3 [- k
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:* `7 w9 X5 ?! I8 U8 e0 X( ~- b
- X0 M7 ~) X; w0 }7 g2 E
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
% T* c* y5 D" R 初盘:0.82平手1.04( z- }% m; E& J# ]
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.854 U8 l0 } T# n P) T; S0 z# |
5 O% s; @3 n+ W& k8 e+ v
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
" N7 g" _- D8 A! p 初盘:0.76平手1.10) {0 u [: a e$ {- ]6 A1 _9 x, [
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
4 y+ Y, f) g+ h5 L
# d% k* B6 @6 o# j- w 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技' G; {- l$ t, p- |/ n9 {; D3 ^( n
初盘:0.82平手1.04
( w6 b/ @5 u- s- |2 V+ [/ ^% y: ^6 { 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
) G% `( }5 Y7 t/ t& c6 n b
6 |* `% n# q8 m; \3 T 伯恩利2-1西汉姆& B! c+ {; r3 G1 {7 }0 J( d
初盘:0.88平手0.98$ c0 `* v# k3 N8 J) S- e
终盘:1.12平/半0.74( g8 u) e& [1 D2 {# `* H; Q: ]+ [2 ~
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。) Y; O% r5 w7 [# p0 v) X
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。3 C' m8 h! B5 H% o' b* u. J. i
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。9 O. D- q- |4 {( g1 \
5 P: v- q9 K1 y- N
三、球队表现
! G: ]' ]8 w% N. m m
; z( n( S- r4 y: i$ f, N 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
5 c/ M+ L a0 y1 d( ]+ r8 f- P
; L- ~. Y7 [3 E4 K- F 四、投注要点5 r$ h- w3 t1 G" D. }) V& k$ t+ s
要点1:平手中水、主多不败
7 B0 o K! d: ]. E 要点2:平手降盘、走两头
# d; g' L9 q& g' ~1 i9 J! \7 c0 d( f 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
& l7 m0 q, u" u6 t 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大1 H5 h* \- Q- e8 W$ |6 P
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
u3 Q- ]5 ]9 Y3 D. J 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
5 ^7 ?. j2 N( |/ P3 B- M 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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