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[lastpost] => 2797241 Bitwise 认为，XRP ETF 的表现“令人惊喜”，但仍有一点需要证明（转） 1768432162 sunnyclare001
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币：分析师预测将升至7.5万至8万美元：原因如下（转）
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比特币[BTC]价格图表显示，市场结构可能发生转变，预示着价格可能突破3月份开始的5万至7.2万美元的区间 ；
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据分析师称股票钱蜥蜴，区间突破可能会在两周内发生。如果是这样的话，分析师预测，如果最近跌破6万美元被辩护为“更高的低点”，比特币可能会达到7.5万至8万美元. Q5 n: B7 ?3 f
9 g: _+ n& T3 Z. Y3 a0 q“如果这一更高的低点得到证实，我们将在2周内突破这一上限阻力。下一个目标是7.5万至8万美元。”
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B0 v$ g7 D! Z" ?; T就背景而言，自8月以来，BTC一直在创下更高的低点，这一价格走势预示着潜在的市场结构转变，特别是如果出现更高的高点 ；
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需求上升与风险
( O: N& \& M) M3 J8 W% J' W; ?& c3 h! w投资者对全球最大数字资产的兴趣也有所改善，这表明与第二季度/第三季度相比，第四季度的需求复苏缓慢但稳定。
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从长远来看，自5月以来，BTC的需求一直是负的，卖出超过了买入。然而，CryptoQuant指出，不平衡的步伐已经放缓 ； @ k) G8 n' R% Y9 V5 y
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事实上，过去30个交易日对BTC的明显需求表明，投资者需求达到了5月份的水平。
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! e2 r' x: [0 \# Y% W在9月底至10月中旬期间，约有15万BTC被投资者抢购，价值约94亿美元 ；1 L6 O! g6 x$ T; t3 T) p* |& F8 e
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因此，如果这种模式在未来两周内持续下去，不断增长的需求可能会支持Stockmoney Lizards的突破预测 ；
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但杠杆率的上升，如未平仓合约（OI）的上升，也给突破预期带来了迫在眉睫的陷阱 ；+ r% Y6 T9 a% u6 k0 L( t4 }
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对于不熟悉的人来说，杠杆率上升意味着投机者通过借钱在期货市场开立BTC头寸来承担更多风险。
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根据Glassnode，最近一个周末从58.9万美元上涨到63.4万美元，一些卖空者（OI为25亿美元）纷纷抛售 ；3 t2 O3 e* u( Q" E/ ^5 [; ^7 d4 l
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然而，该分析公司还指出，OI的跌幅没有超过5%，这一水平在历史上总是会出现BTC的长期反弹。$ ~) z: D3 W& H" ~6 h' S# O. {( p
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简而言之，价格方向两侧的波动性和清算风险加剧可能会破坏突破预期 ；* N7 w4 p# U3 H$ t% A
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与此同时，BTC的价值为62.8万美元，并在发稿时跌破200天移动平均线（MA）4 Z5 a! l4 |4 f. [5 S0 [. V
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