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[虚拟币交流]
分析师:比特币出现“强劲走势”之前 山寨币将保持波动(转)
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一位加密货币分析师表示,在比特币确认突破 10 万美元大关之前,山寨币将继续在大幅上涨和回调之间波动。
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2 b5 _" J) j) U; k4 K3 `, W加密货币交易所 Swyftx 首席分析师 Pav Hundal 在 Aus Crypto Con 2024 上表示:“我们真的很期待看到这一强劲的走势,然后我们将关注资本的轮换。”
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山寨币将“保持波动”7 l" o0 u0 }7 D! w
. T0 x8 r6 `+ m5 k6 Q$ kHundal 表示,虽然有些“未加工的钻石”的表现优于比特币,但像几种Meme币一样,大多数山寨币可能会“保持波动”,直到比特币突破六位数的价格水平。此前,
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比特币险些突破 10 万美元,达到 99,605 美元。截至发稿时,其交易价格为 96,476 美元。7 p/ |. l( t5 @5 g# B0 C4 P
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- q2 t' H. D* j/ tHundal 表示:“我的意思是,他们可能会看到 20%、30%、40% 的涨幅,但第二天就会回撤大部分走势。”
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+ p& b9 i, Y- X& w; |0 H9 g11月21日,Solana 在24小时内上涨了12.98%,但在接下来的五天里却下跌了近13%。
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% P4 T1 b: e: W! |6 ^0 n即使是按市值计算的主要Meme币也看到了这种模式。根据CoinMarketCap的数据,11月15日,在Coinbase和Robinhood宣布上市后,Pepe在短短24小时内飙升了约93.15%,
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但第二天就回调了近22%的涨幅。9 ~( Q. L7 _, l3 m; [) _
9 J$ x+ e3 X9 [当被问及 PEPE 是否有潜力像上一个周期的 Doge 那样实现“800%的日涨幅”时,Hundal 表示,他“不会低估这一点,但当你谈论高市值时,你确实需要资金流入”。
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“当比特币的主导地位回归下行趋势时,这类事情变得更有可能发生。”
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6 C; Y( _+ V* |; U& f0 Q比特币的主导地位衡量的是比特币的市值占整个加密货币市场的百分比。
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比特币的主导地位是关键
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Hundal 认为,比特币的主导地位可能会达到“65% 到 67% ”,甚至在开始下降之前“达到70%”。6 R3 K4 ] }; b1 x
, @+ ]# x6 c( d; Q. _+ W* A4 }Hundal 表示:“对我来说,这并不是要试图选出比特币主导地位的 PICO 来判断山寨币市场何时开始下跌。”
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根据 TradingView 的数据,截至发稿时,比特币的主导地位为 58.30%。
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匿名加密交易员Mikybull crypto在11月28日的一篇文章中表示,“比特币的主导地位将从下个月开始急剧下降。”& S8 J( C, F; l2 V! m4 \/ Z7 t
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然而,CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju最近警告他的374,200 X粉丝,不要指望山寨币的季节和以前的周期一样。' c# L+ ^, f; b6 t; U' n2 I* a
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Ju表示,这是由于机构投资者推动了当前比特币的反弹,他们对更具投机性的代币几乎没有兴趣。
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/ ? }; ^1 ^% s# z9 E w. [Ju 表示:“与加密货币交易所用户不同,机构投资者和 ETF 买家无意将资产从比特币转向山寨币。”$ u5 E5 F; E) ]
_% V2 f: ^( S5 [“为了让山寨币的市值达到历史新高,它们将需要大量新资本流入加密货币交易所。山寨币市值低于之前的 ATH 表明新交易所用户的新鲜流动性减少,”他补充道。* J: r: f2 x3 q/ T, i
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