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[lastpost] => 2764464 三大巨头联合投资,BitcoinZK 如何用 ZK 技术打破比特币生态边界?(转) 1757557113 万家灯火
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。6 E8 ?* C* `9 z3 f/ L/ s
9 e( j" O0 | ~7 z; ]PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。0 K+ E! U( X" {% V6 Y9 E( p) g) H+ x
: w, a E$ j1 Y5 \3 r% mCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。4 ~* k& q C- F( W; b, D7 S
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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0 Y, B% a; I7 } t4 `当前持仓成本:
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
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& o7 ^, E7 L) F9 V比特币价值回归:: Z# V4 O( E# x! I8 r
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。
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" N2 d( C; w; @) b4 E随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。& a* F4 U3 _9 I* B' _8 w1 W" w
9 \# e! i( c: B' @$ s8 D6 P# N4 V加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
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3. 市场热点与反弹情况/ v% ^, e! O: G- H
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虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。. T5 h. g* @; o
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。9 h l9 p5 \9 ` B" u# X) C
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。 r: C+ H6 l& m5 `: u' J
7 \: s4 x5 E; f/ m+ ?8 y$ pSOL与XRP:. S8 F+ u0 y# c; O* P4 e; k7 d
* l0 [5 h: ~9 J& I& o+ P! qSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
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其他热点项目:' z' ]$ Q. {6 g2 n0 k
; ?* X' _# B$ ]6 Y- N涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。3 |/ r0 e4 z6 A: @+ t. o
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目 |) \* _0 x+ |! v
: _9 x# \0 X8 I$ `# H5 U4 a9 hAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
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+ F. {# A8 J, R0 g) g蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。 j, A' a C: f1 U# M' u/ G
& @; i: N" H' z9 X( i& _新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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! D! s& m" t9 j4 }! n' \市场展望
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& f- s ?- q" F8 \1 g! S随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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