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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。' G$ V o0 L6 o4 Q# p! d( Q
8 J0 e G/ ]8 I 3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。% w p, Y" b5 f2 _
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2 @+ l( [& ]( G% X+ S f* E 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。
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. |2 |+ l2 t( N6 h 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。
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市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。2 `3 T( @/ H0 w5 P7 @; x$ h
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，
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" v( j4 I* m1 v3 n/ I价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。
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) d) l) R( v. S9 i; F; T4 q+ A “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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2 x$ z& i' d: \: _& F1 ~框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”1 _9 T8 ?3 ^; z/ o4 ]/ z
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知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。5 m) R6 q: u. r! e a* z
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“$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在5 y% b `8 d" t; D& L" ^
! d. r2 O& }( Z3 b8 s3 i积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”% h+ Q0 |9 ~9 o% L4 b
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2 v* g0 k. D& ~, ]# X 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。$ m6 G1 @; q o5 U2 C2 m: X
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比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势
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当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。+ U8 v3 r3 z& B- c
/ b% c2 x* W% L; o 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。0 \$ y$ ?5 t/ u* v% C M
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# v+ g/ i$ w( u' B. j# _0 @ 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，4 b# J: z2 {6 j; I: V! R! w" [
/ O4 C$ w: t+ ?5 J P' ]市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”
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