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[lastpost] => 2760571 高薪也拴不住人：Meta 超级智慧实验室“翻车”，两月内核心研究员接连出走 1756744800 天策-瑶娥
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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L" _4 M7 E: W衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”( S" W6 `# h3 E2 b
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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" i# t6 {9 n4 ^) ^0 a7 t融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。+ z- m: h( i" Z6 f" R& ~' E4 G
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益
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% a: G2 e. P0 W$ {7 R F率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。& E1 ~6 Z; s, O8 }
& U! b) w3 P/ Q5 h/ g' k# z. W. k然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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是表示：
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$ R. v: w2 r* S& y# T这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。8 P" g8 V7 W' U. Q( ]3 n9 |1 L' f% o
u9 U; S6 w9 L( F% d+ R& ^+ z" @# A9 o历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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0 K- Q! L2 U* f7 ]* y特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史) `# P5 Y) I+ t3 R) ?3 m, f4 X. k
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标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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" c6 p* Y% p" I" n+ U$ a( c, e周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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1 |6 M; X7 o. n D! T- |4 b9 z- ^周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。- \0 B5 X5 A8 ], s! }1 e' h
, B1 |' x$ H/ T8 h& H* T6 \% _6 {8 Y周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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0 o' q' I# z8 Y收益率冲高回落。 O7 ^) Z5 h3 f/ `' I8 |
\4 C9 c: n1 L: v5 l% S周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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% A2 D! Q# B) | r* _* d/ x周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。" Q0 _7 n% B+ K7 L
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- ? G, y: Y$ _Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，$ i1 k6 |' v- V a( a! R
& t; [4 ?7 H( {/ m* {4 L7 z是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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2 g& Y" t1 g& W7 Q* M; ?/ l根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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7 G \' i. `* A年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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