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[lastpost] => 2751494 加密预测市场Polymarket有意推自家稳定币-转 1753319618 万家灯火
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美国贸易政策的突变正在使金融市场发生调整，这将对经济产生短期的负面影响，然而，过去一周的市场条件不太可能
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成为未来四年的常态。特朗普ZF正在实施一系列政策措施，这些政策将对 GDP 增长、通货膨胀和贸易赤字产生不同的影响。5 b; K1 U+ s$ L& r i
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例如，虽然关税可能会减少经济增长并提高通货膨胀（即造成滞涨），某些类型的放松管制可能会提高增长并降低通货膨胀/ j0 D9 S {( k2 {# \- {. ]
' q8 c0 p& |% z: C6 |6 D' {（即减少滞涨），最终的结果将取决于白宫在这些领域内实施政策议程的程度。/ P# |0 A( I7 B Z5 E- `+ M: s' e% g( }
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! q3 c% M- o5 d1 x5 r- z 尽管前景存在不确定性，最好的猜测是，美国ZF的政策将在未来 1 至 3 年内导致美元持续疲软和总体高于目标的通胀。3 Y, L$ E. y8 O( j, u" A3 Y
8 \6 ^$ O1 K1 q! v关税本身可能会减缓增长，但这种影响可能会部分被减税、放松管制和美元贬值所抵消。如果白宫还积极推行其他促进增长的5 H& F# x: p+ K
6 o& X/ q4 c5 }. @7 Q6 Z2 c政策，尽管最初受到关税的冲击，GDP 增长仍可能保持相对良好。无论实际增长是否强劲，历史表明，一段时期内持续的通胀8 C% B5 F3 V }6 D' t
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压力对比特币和黄金等稀缺大宗商品来说可能是有利的。
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此外，就像 20 世纪 70 年代的黄金一样，比特币如今拥有迅速改善的市场结构 — — 这得到了美国ZF政策变化的支持。
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今年以来，白宫实施了一系列广泛的政策变化，这些变化应该会支持对数字资产行业的投资，包括撤销一系列诉讼，确保资产
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# f# Q1 p4 I# d对传统商业银行的适用性，以及允许受监管的机构（如托管人）提供加密货币服务。这反过来又引发了一波并购活动和其他战1 ~2 [( h/ M. `/ |; w
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略投资。新关税对比特币等数字资产估值是一个短期的不利因素，但特朗普ZF的加密货币特定政策一直支持该行业。综合来
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, N) l z' B6 h4 V c9 P: p看，宏观经济对稀缺大宗商品资产的需求上升和投资者经营环境的改善，可能是未来几年比特币广泛采用的有力组合。
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