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[lastpost] => 2796859 通过 Polymarket 对预测市场的深度洞察及观点定价的本质（转） 1768352302 22301
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币BTC再次突破 87,000 美元——以下是分析师对其价格的预测（转）
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比特币[BTC]在复活节反弹期间回升至8.7万美元，专家认为这与美元走弱有关。VanEck数字资产研究主管Mathew Sigel在最近的一份- S. z4 k. u6 k9 ~
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报告中特别强调了这一论断。
& q! J. n0 y7 b美元抛售推高比特币
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9 B: a1 V3 C, w1 F& P. Z' a- OGalaxy 研究主管 Alex Thorn 和 Bitwise 的 Andre Dragosch 也持有类似观点。事实上，Dragosch补充说，美元指数 (DXY) 跌至 2022 年以
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来的最低水平。
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8 i# ]2 M" f, K: B“看起来，比特币正因美元持续疲软而上涨。美元指数刚刚触及2022年3月以来的最低水平。”
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% Y+ i) M3 t- F' x" z- j根据附图，比特币的价格走势与美元指数呈负相关。因此，在唐纳德·特朗普总统威胁解雇美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的推动下，美元指8 `1 f; b1 U# v2 U s
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数走弱（从100美元跌至97美元），从而推动了加密货币的上涨。# p* ?* s0 D. H) F5 S$ Q4 v
. Z8 }6 \8 c( v/ AAmberdata 的 Greg Madini 补充道，特朗普的举动“威胁到美联储的独立性”，而鲍威尔的继任者将引发通胀。Magadini补充道，这将推
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高黄金和比特币的价格。$ n0 W4 j- L2 R4 w |5 k' T2 A' I! l1 R
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下周我们将迎来美联储褐皮书发布，多位美联储理事也将发表讲话。任何威胁美联储独立性的言论都可能成为黄金和比特币上涨的催化& i2 r. P/ M4 _9 ^7 x) h# _
4 T" g2 i) E3 v' w! C剂。
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这里值得指出的是，黄金价格在周一再创历史新高（ATH），这是过去几周脱钩之后首次出现与BTC的正相关性。3 N3 b: o0 H6 w9 H. ^
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这意味着，在关税不确定性的背景下，投资者纷纷涌向黄金和比特币（BTC）作为“避险资产”。大多数交易员和分析师都承认BTC突破
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& M u) w& j3 Z1 ? @了8.7万美元。
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然而，BTC 的上涨是由低现货交易量推动的，需要在美国市场开盘时再次确认。匿名分析师 StockMoney Lizards警告称，+ i3 y* f$ k0 Y) |
0 @: U- K0 Z$ _/ B& c“突破不错，但成交量不大。肯定需要确认。无论如何，你现在还不应该太兴奋。”8 G/ w" q0 j6 {
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5 P9 Z1 C$ f' t n5 {分析师马修·海兰德 (Matthew Hyland)表示，比特币的持续复苏将取决于突破 89,000 美元。
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“#BTC 多头现在的唯一目标是突破 89,000 美元，创造并确认更高的高点，并确认下行趋势的结束。” A+ A2 @; g! ]3 p% j" Y9 W
, m, ~7 A6 c* |9 `2 D( o0 l6 h8 sCryptoQuant 进一步支持了市场复苏的前景，指出当前的价格走势是正常的回调，而非完整的熊市周期。该公司引用了“链上交
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0 o u) [- z$ t' j- x# N易者已实现盈亏保证金”指标来佐证这一观点。4 h/ E R1 u' W4 v) W3 s
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