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BCA Research表示，投资者开始对美国的“避险资产”地位产生怀疑，而这可能对比特币构成利好。, }- L/ ^; ^9 p! N9 z+ F+ o: ?
0 Y7 W# x$ l | 该研究机构在最新给投资者的报告中指出，目前其整体投资组合保持防御性配置——减持股票、增持固定收益资产，并在股票投资中降低对美国5 J: B/ |* _( j, n8 a% y% ]
" }3 M* y9 k' b市场的权重。原因在于，海外投资者正集体“回避”美国资产，担忧美国政策已从“贸易战”转向“资本战”。
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与此同时，BCA也首次将比特币纳入其研究覆盖范围，并将比特币的评级从“减持”上调至“中性”。今年2月，BCA曾出于市场情绪过于乐观的判断而
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. g9 g- a; P, ~. l! A“短期看空”比特币。8 {% v. M* G6 M- l- Y d1 z
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“在全球资金撤离美国资产的背景下，比特币有望成为受益者。”报告写道，“市场情绪已经从高点大幅回落。今年以来，活跃交易的比特币在整体已
) ?( J( {4 c) z+ P/ N7 g0 ]3 P1 P0 u% V* E4 H1 K5 S4 `7 T: T
实现市值中的占比急剧下降。”+ V5 h7 e" Q% ~7 V
) p* x9 q3 |, C" W6 P5 n& o: q 报告还指出，比特币作为“数字黄金”，正越来越像实物黄金那样表现，在美国资产大规模抛售期间依旧保持坚挺。
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; J6 Y r/ E2 G0 F' z 根据Coin Metrics的数据，自4月3日——即特朗普总统宣布初始关税政策的第二天起——比特币已上涨约12%。同期，现货黄金上涨了8%，/ R% t( B. ~7 I* |: r
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而纳斯达克综合指数几乎持平。4 S) i- ~7 }7 p) S2 t3 e
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BCA在报告中进一步指出：“虽然美国经济增长目前仍表现坚挺，但关税政策的模糊性，已导致企业资本支出意愿大幅下滑。”此外，“激烈的
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利率波动也再度打击了住宅房地产市场。”4 }+ A& F" B5 _- \" ]5 B
) h5 E/ h. E8 Q4 m, R “尽管特朗普ZF在某些强硬言论上有所收敛，但企业仍迫切需要明确的政策信号，才能恢复投资。”报告写道，“若无法及时提供清晰政策，' N7 X% `! _8 f; t3 z( ^
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将可能引发更为严重的经济衰退。”7 e6 K ~" W2 U. l. D w! H
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