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[lastpost] => 2813579 美国2月未季调CPI年率将于今晚20:30公布，预期2.4%，前值2.4%（转） 1773287074 舞出精彩
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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8 Z! l" `9 h _( h$ p1 aUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？& e* i2 X2 ^) G. Z
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
/ S3 L& J) A* S2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。, K# H" b+ o. `! u0 \. { Y
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来源：Alphractal
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。: g8 g# J+ t0 X% [2 {7 N8 }, b
. f' B' P; \, @" R) \- ]" v尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。8 h9 E/ p+ T& q4 m* d, h) h
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事情变得有趣了8 [8 V7 U; O4 n$ M" v0 f" p: ~; Y
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。! T2 E$ Q$ u e
) q& w, c# p2 q4 m" D来源：X: I" _/ [: { g; ?
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。5 d2 _6 K9 D* r1 p7 ^$ J2 B
+ W8 {5 T$ c* N7 `0 @$ @' I正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。5 E" j; l* w" T5 E! v4 ?9 f
+ y3 F! j8 }1 A+ l7 L随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。$ m% A j/ Y- e' S0 P
9 J% C2 n! Q, d* w: N! _空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
: o4 o2 {1 |9 E5 B+ S经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。3 C; D& _! s: [( ^7 O4 Z
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来源：TradingView
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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7 a8 d7 [/ X @5 `" V$ _5 G然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。/ z& x$ p$ o [
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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