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独立研究员：6100 亿美元 AI 庞氏骗局崩盘
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比推消息，金融市场独立研究员佩雷拉 (Shanaka Anslem Perera) 发文称，昨日，一场史无前例的剧变发生。英伟达股价在财报发布后飙升 5%，却在 18 小时内暴跌至负值区间。华尔街算法捕捉到了人类未能察觉的异常：账面数据存在严重矛盾。具体发现如下：
英伟达未结账款一年暴增 89% 至 334 亿美元，付款周期从 46 天拉长至 53 天，库存芯片同期激增 32% 至 198 亿美元。193 亿美元利润仅转化出 145 亿美元现金流，转化率 75%，远低于同行 95%，差距 48 亿美元已达危机级别。
AI 生态资金闭环曝光：英伟达给 xAI 注资 20 亿美元，xAI 举债 125 亿反买英伟达芯片；微软投 OpenAI 130 亿美元，OpenAI 承诺 500 亿美元买 Azure，微软再拿 1000 亿向英伟达下单；甲骨文给 OpenAI 3000 亿美元云额度，OpenAI 再为甲骨文买英伟达芯片。同一笔钱被反复计入营收，现金却从未真正落地。
聪明钱已逃离：Peter Thiel 11 月 9 日抛售 1 亿美元英伟达股票，软银 11 月 11 日清仓 58 亿美元美元持股，迈克尔·伯里买入 2026 年 3 月英伟达 140 美元看跌期权。比特币从 12.6 万美元跌至 8.6 万美元，分析人士警告，一旦英伟达再跌 40%，将触发 230 亿美元比特币强制平仓，加密市场将雪崩。
时间线已定：2026 年 2 月财报暴露坏账，3 月信用评级下调，4 月首次财务重述。英伟达公允价值 71 美元，当前 186 美元，高估 162%。AI 泡沫 90 天崩盘倒计时开启。
总体上，Perera 对央行干预、地缘摩擦和科技集中风险持谨慎态度。他建议投资者转向热力学与博弈论驱动的资产，而非怀旧式央行依赖。
风险提示： 本新闻涉及的内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。依据发布的信息以及所表达的意见行事所造成的一切后果由行事者自负。文章链接 |
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