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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
6 F N; I( e d* o1 `" x. m4 j3 ?4 E/ \
3 G3 L9 G4 f! V0 C& L" V9 g6 f
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
. M) e! Z3 E9 _: [; Y7 x7 S" p' L0 }6 i, b+ {5 B
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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( m; r# e, t; V1 o! J, Z" W皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
: O9 _9 w) S+ I5 _5 @: G' n2 D5 ^8 o3 Z8 ]" u( i
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!); f/ ~+ J) u6 n4 Q- Y
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+ ]9 f9 [. }3 p% E以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?, M; M+ r8 m- Y7 s9 p
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* m% O* c' j3 R2 X盈利可能性5 e8 _5 E" Z6 }0 ]5 w& C
) N8 t/ y/ n4 H6 v; U
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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: }: T" S* X& E" j7 h增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。8 I& G) g, @" x6 d2 q
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?9 g; W- k6 {" l' d
% W& Y- u5 Z5 T: \7 z1 ea) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 2 h+ w/ t. w. c6 {
; y2 v7 I8 c; I C
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么) P3 m8 g3 o' [4 O! S0 V
/ A. f' p( E: s, [40%的机会你会收到150元的利润6 U9 r* Y* y( a, ?; E
60%的机会你会一无所有7 Z V6 A6 {* o7 {
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
1 v; H3 `' W, E由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
5 B9 e$ H" W1 x) N9 B# J2 X) [$ J0 y! q- V; F& O1 K
增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。: F; \- E9 T3 b9 [* _9 h7 t: Z
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基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。$ u5 I6 P& P! \
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)2 i' T* a- e$ [9 u: j% i% w
* i4 J }; s; X8 ~+ x, `) O' }A=博彩资金/ n z" g. Y6 y
P=获胜机会
- \; ]+ u6 r7 W7 Y0 E1 \, ^O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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$ r6 S% A a' \5 m1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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8 y) r& D) ]8 K7 t4 A$ ^A=02 p. U$ o9 w C9 H) `$ |$ ?; H
5 @8 [6 `* n6 q4 }结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢6 g8 q }1 K5 o; l7 F
- f! ?/ t) I" H. \4 P- _2 F: M; K2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)) `5 A3 S3 v/ g* g* h9 H
( z6 x' a7 C- Y: K4 nA=0.16 S6 J3 G# b! k# A" S4 L- x
' |5 R' U4 e( w; Q3 j结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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. v* M' I. U' Z: qA= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好3 h9 z( h- P+ q9 H# n0 A
, V+ U0 V/ ? d8 ~4 Q第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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