Array
(
[fid] => 6728
[description] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!
[password] =>
[icon] => 7c/common_6728_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[digest] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 0
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 1
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 3
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 加精华
[action] => digest
[fids] => 6966,6903,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] =>
[rules] => 1)发布主题帖+1经验+1活跃币,回贴+10华小分
2)Lv.1及其以上级别会员可以发布主题帖,Lv.1及其以上会员可以回帖
4)转帖请在主题上标明
5)禁止发布与本版块无关的主题(违反,帖子转移到相关版块,并扣50经验)
6)禁止回复与主题无关的帖子(违反,帖子删除,并扣10经验)
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[137] => 体育菠菜玩法规则
[138] => 体育菠菜心得方法
[139] => 体育菠菜问题咨询
)
[icons] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 81 83 84 87 89 90 91 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8 92
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] => 足球,篮球,体育,规则,打法
[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[sort] => 0
[orderby] => 2
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 5
[imagewidth] => 200
[imageheight] => 150
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 900
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6831
[type] => forum
[name] => 体育知识讲座
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 5
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 2735
[posts] => 23139
[todayposts] => 0
[yesterdayposts] => 0
[rank] => 113
[oldrank] => 114
[lastpost] => 125127 升降盘理论 1741350473 france89
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 1
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 0
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 0
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 271 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
/ T6 n6 k3 K7 V4 W/ H; I) I5 u4 [- h- K$ b/ L3 y2 i6 ]& r. i. y
7 } C9 k! S; @) A' g! A1 n
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
% b# ?4 [- E/ j9 m7 I+ y, }" j/ Q$ A- w& ]( l9 j, I- T3 h
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:% f/ A& {1 a+ z3 Y& M3 _+ F
f$ G8 C& J p. S% G! h4 U皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% $ N8 e& C0 Q) J3 H$ B8 }4 {: X
( X" f: b m/ H: F; ]
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?8 w8 [7 l3 w' g7 a% u3 j0 p
" n9 H; O+ h+ i3 x' u8 i8 a答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
! [; H% k1 H$ W, U' r }% Y, U
" l3 C* I, ]8 M* a' a4 c
$ L1 P3 M2 _ R以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
# a1 b" c; d, R: N
3 v1 B% W2 n( C
2 j6 s X. a/ }* [+ L6 S盈利可能性* B$ S& g& c' q" I) a& M: y2 B
% m( A, G9 j2 j" @% P9 v9 y
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
3 p7 W& O5 @1 W0 C4 T. B
: W8 j2 M; B1 s6 t Y4 ]) f( F增值
" p# q1 r6 J9 p& r& x8 C5 b, m) j& H* D
许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。% c. Z1 L! v: D6 F
/ D3 a9 I8 t B1 W1 K. q, u' Q1 a
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
0 w! D7 p8 R( {5 Z6 Q! C X1 F$ g; S# c D+ a7 X
a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 " |! y, q$ q: u
! [4 S' R; A1 l- a) c5 H
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
: t, f! E- {1 _4 V
3 i0 {+ X2 ~) A" B2 ], o40%的机会你会收到150元的利润: }4 l! ?0 N5 h
60%的机会你会一无所有' n& w: z' e* k3 E' r+ F
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 1 R. K1 R* v# i9 b D L
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
; u0 ?& T" R5 j
" R% u6 ~8 s% `/ F+ K+ j增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。9 G' E4 Q# v2 |0 S# t% D0 j
7 u/ E* M2 v( ?6 v; p基于增值的投注& {- f& h8 U4 G1 E, S1 ?3 G9 r- B; z2 R
% O+ o3 S$ x8 C9 R6 S
凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
9 ]/ u9 T' u; \0 _9 c8 i4 v2 R' A) z, L2 M
公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
% L2 `, k; }" F- n z4 J; G2 v
+ U5 j0 l U3 n- dA=博彩资金9 n0 R; Y9 n) I9 \" W+ f5 n
P=获胜机会: G9 S, L/ x: x- b% N7 h2 @( c
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)1 C v6 L5 i6 x" l9 j4 H9 c1 d; \. W
7 l2 g4 Z1 p, F, e; t& E
首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
$ l$ K8 {# ?$ F3 u4 q
' z- m8 t: C0 N$ l4 o' A好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
: _' [0 Y( p: [7 p. |/ `+ Q- q# U8 E" _
1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
; u# v9 j: d [0 S I; V w1 N% _( x
A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)- C" Y. U7 Q* q& V3 m6 _- u% g5 W
* K& I" h. N5 t3 P+ `( U" ?A=01 O' F# C0 b' D4 l/ Y
2 B! A- i) h+ t# ^
结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢/ q* G* M) h2 d( M3 M9 H' i9 T
# U% L, m/ Z8 g' _9 v" k2 a- t6 \2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
' t7 A3 u- d. ~$ e1 W) z/ z# }
) [5 z; V) C+ o$ ?1 A8 [A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)1 O7 \7 M G6 G. D( m5 ^( L- L
2 Z( |1 _( R8 H* p! v. s
A=0.1
5 R* T6 y. i2 d' d
; J$ V1 W. v! x) T# s结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
9 h4 `& x1 w! E6 `: h( O* B. C
3 T) j. y9 U, u; X% ]) G. J- r& @3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)* d! k1 v# t6 G5 o& x# a
( l' O) e, S# k, `1 y' L1 F& {A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)! \. v& Z/ x5 C- K8 q5 `+ E& \' u. c
8 a2 d V- R4 F/ F
A= -0.2 + B% q; L, M7 P! u Y% A8 j
+ ?- \! }2 I" c+ `) X2 p4 _
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
& G3 q( P/ X, G9 a4 F" H9 f# {3 \) }) i& g) q/ G
第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 968 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 800 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 7136 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 4235 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|