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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑
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刚刚认真计算了一次;
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' ?" x! g% H1 q  [+ ^& n. T假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
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开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;
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开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/72
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" o" o# U, T) Q$ m! I开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72/ R  `3 ?1 K4 W

1 X% z9 c- O: v; L收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5
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9 z; \+ n; m  ~2 W5 H) t所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;
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加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;8 a2 S" p& C* x# u6 Y& T5 v
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以上,76gor
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我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;
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假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,% l) C, n2 R5 x, c4 W" F
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一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,000( H! P* G' F5 _6 {
每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,152: t. J) Y' u- v4 j" l0 v9 e) @

7 [8 n/ }% z5 k+ c  z/ ~假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥500
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% o/ U% [& R6 X) i, r0 T6 v每天净收入为:¥652
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3 ~& O4 h' e( ?3 ]6 Q8 c" s年收入为:¥237,980
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0 j0 ]( ^" d9 b9 D8 y1 F唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;5 E  V7 g5 b) ]" k* {; L
唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;
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回复 2# 76gor 7 d% {4 F0 A% H' q5 F3 [9 I

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4 I6 m) s# Y) L! I1 h' W   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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感谢76分享阿
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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最近流行探讨这个话题?1 Q1 b4 x( x& q1 w$ y
Terrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22
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    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,
& l9 E' L2 P/ h5 Z& D& lbeata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24
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2 }3 h) E5 T+ W, K. c    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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楼主分析得好厉害啊
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刚刚认真计算了一次;
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: t& C( q2 |5 r假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
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开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...
/ u0 {2 U$ Q: x3 o% ?  h76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54

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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏* k8 {: u% A! ~0 `2 X
大概是1%多点
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至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏* F* L' L! Z, S& X: d- x
大概是1%多点) d$ N; O% [% b3 g: e8 ^/ q( @
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至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...# Q: `& j/ u6 \# E' ?5 L# q
taishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27

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    请指教
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楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?8 U  |/ }  \/ C1 T
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26
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    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor , f7 k1 \2 W# s5 _

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   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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回复  76gor
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( J% ], q- H9 S- m0 a' ~' L* e   有个风险就是豹子吧!
; }2 [) A+ m9 [3 Y% i. q粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30

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    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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